Romney wins CPAC!

RESULTS of the 2009 CPAC Straw Poll:

1. Mitt Romney 20%

2. Bobby Jindal 14%

3. Ron Paul 13%

3. Sarah Palin 13%

5. Newt Gingrich 10%

6. Mike Huckabee 7%

7. Mark Sanford 4%

8. Rudy 3%

9. Tim Pawlenty 2%

10. Charlie Crist 1%

Undecided 9%

GOP12's pre-result prophecy (actual ranking to the right)

1. Mitt Romney (1)

2. Sarah Palin (3)

3. Mark Sanford (7)

4. Ron Paul (3)

5. Mike Huckabee (6)

6. Bobby Jindal (2)

7. Newt Gingrich (5)

8. Tim Pawlenty (9)

9. Charlie Crist (10)

10. Rudy (8)

SUMMARY:

First, you have to consider the source on these things. Ron Paul, as we predicted, fared much better than he would in any primary. Calling Paul a front-runner for 2012 is to say the Kansas City Royals are world series favorites after starting a 162 game season 4-0.

Second, Romney is still the grassroots favorite, even if he only fared 3rd in yesterday's CNN Poll. In other words, nothing's changed. He's dominated this thing 3 years in a row, but still can't parlay that enthusiasm to the top.

Third, CPAC'ers clearly didn't watch Bobby Jindal's rebuttal speech. Either that, or they love, love, LOVED it. Logistically, 2012 doesn't make sense for Jindal, and politically, it's a long shot, as well.

But conservative conferences tend to do something very primal -- their participants lionize those who've been thrown to the lions by the press (even the conservative press, who suddenly become effete liberal traitors).

Fourth, in keeping with their feud, Mike Huckabee is everything Mitt Romney isn't. Huckabee fares well nationally, but ate dirt in the straw pall. Is it because CPAC'ers think he's unelectable? Probably not. After all, Ron Paul came in third.

Fifth, CPAC obviously didn't take place in Miami. Charlie Crist had his expected dismal showing, which means a) conservative activists aren't particularly interested in reaching out to expand the party and b) don't give much of a damn about Florida's 27 electoral votes.

Charlie Crist is unpopular with Republicans, but that's because all the Republicans who like him have registered as Democrats or independents. And until we bring them back into the fold -- as Crist has done in Florida -- welcome to the party everyone left, because all the host would do is play Pictionary and drink tea.

Sixth, Tim Pawlenty struggled, not because of any animosity toward him, but because he's Tim Pawlenty. As we've said, Pawlenty needs to go to whatever school drag queens attend, because he needs a shot of HCH -- human charisma hormone.

Seventh, the only result we really missed the ball on was Mark Sanford. It's a little disorienting to diagnose what went wrong for him. We clearly thought he'd done himself favors over the last, few months with activists, but maybe conservatives are.... who knows. Theory not recognized. Must reboot.