Rasmussen Reports releases new 2012 head-to-head match-ups showing tough numbers for Sarah Palin.
Hypothetical 2012 Head-to-Heads:
a. Mitt Romney 52% Sarah Palin 37%
b. Mike Huckabee 55% Sarah Palin 35%
c. Mike Huckabee 44% Mitt Romney 39%
More key notes:
a. Palin beats Romney by 14% among evangelical Christians.
b. Romney beats Palin by 26% among other Protestants, and also holds a strong lead among Catholics.
c. Huckabee beats Palin by 17% among evangelical Christians, and by 29% among other Protestants.
Notes: First, skipping Iowa wouldn't be a bad idea for Romney. He's clearly struggling among the evangelicals who play such a big role in that state.
And making your stand is New Hampshire is a hell of a lot different from making it in Florida, ala Rudy.
Second, Rasmussen notes that Mike Huckabee seems to be picking up the supporters Sarah Palin bled after resigning in July, and the implications of that are noteworthy for two reasons.
Rasmussen supplies the establishment-chilling first.
That suggests a large pool of voters are committed to choosing between two candidates routinely dismissed as unacceptable in the eyes of Republicans in Washington, DC. At the moment, 47% prefer either Huckabee or Palin while 42% prefer a candidate more acceptable to Republican political leaders.
The second is that -- for some time -- it's been assumed that Sarah Palin will siphon evangelical votes from Mike Huckabee, as Christian conservatives drift toward the social conservative with the greatest chance of winning.
This poll -- along with a bunch of others (check out polling archive) -- suggests things might go the other way. Palin supporters might be more likely to switch to Huckabee.
Of course, all this assumes a 3-horse race. My sense is that Palin will flirt with a run to help build her brand; then opt out. Huck's similarly undecided, but if Romney looks like he has a clear path, Huckabee might jump in just to scuttle his old rival and leave the door open for Pawlenty, Thune, or someone else.
Huckabee doesn't really want to be President, but he really doesn't want Romney to be, either.
