Monday, November 9, 2009

Huckabee the Realist

Ben Smith has a must-read chat with Mike Huckabee, in which the front-runner for the 2012 nomination (at least in polls) expresses admirable resistance to the echo chamber.

“Some people will believe all the ya-ya that people will tell them. It’s easy to get swept up into that — 10 people tell you you’re the next president, and the next thing you know you’re breathing it in and you’re out there.

I can’t base a decision like that on the people who would stand in line for two hours to buy my book.”

One more thing that needs to be said.

The public’s demographic, according to a casual canvass of his book signings, tends toward women of his age and older.

Of course, it could be that women are more likely to buy books, and especially ones that are titled "A Simple Christmas" and remind folks of hearth and home (which fits squarely with his evangelical demographic).

On the other hand, the anecdotal evidence reminds me of the fact that Mike Huckabee is the only 2012 front-runner who scores positive favorable ratings among women, something that could be due to the talk show effect, and -- as it happens -- something that could be extremely valuable in a general election.

In Public Policy Polling's most recent survey, Huck's favorables among all female respondents are +11% among women.

Romney? -3%.

Palin: -22%.

And getting back to the first snippet -- about not basing your electoral decisions on a rabid, but small percentage of the population who loves you -- veiled shot at Palin?

UPDATE: I should explain the title's post: "Huckabee the realist". In context with the extracted quote, it gives the impression Huckabee doesn't give himself much of a chance, when actually, he does have a pretty decent shot at the nomination.

What he also has is a realistic sense of how echo chambers can skew your ability to gauge popularity. That's what the headline/extracted quote were getting at.