Public Policy Polling releases results (pdf) from its most recent poll, pitting Barack Obama against top 2012 contenders.
The good news? They're all doing well. The surprising news? Post-clemency, Huck continues to out-poll his rivals and effectively ties the POTUS.
1. Barack Obama 46% Mike Huckabee 45%
2. Barack Obama 47% Mitt Romney 42%
3. Barack Obama 50% Sarah Palin 44%
4. Barack Obama 48% Tim Pawlenty 35%
Key findings:
a. Obama job approval: 49%/47%, net of +2%.
b. Mike Huckabee favorables: 35%/35%, for even.
c. Mitt Romney favs: 32%/36%, net of -4%.
d. Sarah Palin favs: 41%/50%, net of -9%.
e. Tim Pawlenty favs: 12%/24%, net of -12%, with 64% expressing no opinion.
By Gender:
a. Among women, Palin's favs are 37%/51%, among men 45%/50%.
b. Among women, Romney's favs are 27%/35%, among men 37%/37%.
c. Among women, Huck's favs are 32%/32%, among men 40%/38%.
d. Among women, Obama's favs are 54%/49%, among men 42%/54%.
By Party ID:
a. Palin's fav among Republican is highest, but that's a bit deceptive since her name ID is also so high.
For example, 29% of Republicans aren't sure about Huckabee and 34% aren't sure of Romney. But only 9% aren't sure of Palin. So naturally, name id is a confounding variable on this set of results.
By Race:
a. Obama beats Huck by 31% among Hispanics, 77% among blacks. Whites favor Huck by 18%.
b. Obama beats Palin by 42% among Hispanics, 82% among blacks. Whites favor Palin by 13%.
c. Obama beats Romney by 31% among Hispanics, 86% among blacks. Whites favor Romney by 14%.
By region:
Obama beats every Republican in the Northeast and West, but each Republican beats Obama in the South and Midwest. That Midwest result is very important. In fact, Huck routs Obama there by 18%.
Notes: Commutation?
Mike Huckabee might be leaning against a run for Prez, but it's hard to see how he could turn down a bid if he continues to lead the pack.
The CW throughout much of the year is that a Palin bid would starve Huck of oxygen. But that's based on the assumption Palin is a stronger contender.
The more likely phenomenon is that a Huck bid would starve Palin of oxygen, because throughout this year, we've learned that right now he's the stronger candidate.
One note from pollster Tom Jensen:
What's interesting is that there's been almost no change in her [Palin's] favorability numbers over the course of the year. She was at 39/50 then and she's at 41/50 now. That's a pretty clear sign the tightening has had little to do with her and almost everything to do with Obama's declining popularity.
That's an important caveat for every Republican in the race.
Also, look at those numbers on ethnicity. There's no way Republicans can continue to be competitive nationally if they continue to get crushed among Hispanics. You get the sense party leaders know that, but many grassroots activists don't.
Real America is in every neighborhood and every state.
[Hat tip: Frontloading HQ]
