Thursday, May 14, 2009

New Fox Poll: Huckabee leads for 2012

In a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll (pdf), Mike Huckabee leads among Republican voters in a match for the 2012 nomination.

Polling question:

I'm going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2012 Republican nomination. Please tell me which one you would like to see as the Republican presidential nominee.

Among Republicans:

1. Mike Huckabee 20%

2. Mitt Romney 18%

3. Newt Gingrich 14%

4. Sarah Palin 13%

5. Rudy Giuliani 12%

6. Mark Sanford 4%

7. Jeb Bush/Bobby Jindal 3%

8. Don't know etc., 14%

Among Independents:

1. Rudy Giuliani 19%

2. Mike Huckabee 16%

3. Mitt Romney 12%

4. Sarah Palin 10%

5. Newt Gingrich 5%

6. Jeb Bush/Bobby Jindal/Mark Sanford 2%

7. Don't know etc., 32%

Notes: With name recognition a moot point, the poll can't be good news for Sarah Palin.

Among Republicans, the top 5 clearly have high ID, especially among Republicans. So if the ranking doesn't reflect recognition, it reflects choice, and Rudy essentially ties her. She may have the most passionate supporters, but it doesn't appear she has the most.

The CW is that a Palin candidacy could destroy a Huck candidacy. But could a Huck candidacy destroy a Palin candidacy?

The poll isn't terrible news for Romney, but it isn't great, and his trouble connecting with actual voters still shows in polls. Considering presumptive "front-runner" status, he should be ahead; not tied with Huck. Is this like trying to make a leopard change his spots, or a zebra his stripes? We know he's the anointed one, but will Republicans bow?

As for Mike Huckabee, life is good. Very good.

[Hat tip: CQ Politics]


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