Monday, July 20, 2009

2012: Romney and Obama tied

Rasmussen Reports is out with a new poll, showing Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tying, 45%-45% in a potential 2012 matchup.

Sarah Palin is also within striking distance, losing 48%-42%.

In a sign of Obama's continued erosion among independents, unaffiliated voters prefer Romney 48%-41%.

However, against Sarah Palin, unaffiliated voters support Obama, 47%-41%.

32% of Republicans think Palin should run for President as an independent if she fails to win the nomination. But the results would be disastrous for the GOP, and nearly certainly ensure a second term for Obama.


If Romney secured the GOP nomination and Palin chose to run as an independent candidate, Obama would win the resulting three-way race with 44% of the vote. Romney is the choice of 33% of the voters under that scenario, with Palin a distant third with 16% support.

Notes: The poll is, first and foremost, a referendum on Barack Obama and the Democratic Congress, since Mitt Romney has done little to publicly raise his national profile in the last, few months.

For her part, Sarah Palin's done more than a little to raise hers, but beyond lingering struggles with unaffiliated voters and a resignation Americans view as distinctly opportunistic (pdf), she's also running close to Obama.

That's bad news for Obama, and even worse news for 2010.


JeanA said...

My, my, what a web we weave!

Gov. Sarah Palin could divinely be a game spoiler.

The elitist’s better start treating this woman with the respect she deserves.

You hear me!

But on the brighter side the election is 3¼ years out.

Carlos Echevarria said...

thanks for posting this....very interesting numbers!

christian soldier said...

Read your two Petraeus posts-looks like we can count him out...
'School's still out' on Romney---he's a little too 'blue-blood' for me -

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