Over at the Corner, Ramesh Ponnuru thinks outgoing House whip Rep. Roy Blunt has a better shot in a primary matchup against Steelman for the state's open seat in '10.
Sarah Steelman might be able to do well enough in that region [the South] in a general election—but how does she get through the primary if Blunt runs?
She's got a shot at getting through the primary, because Roy Blunt's son, Governor Matt Blunt, is not a popular fellow in Missouri these days (how weird is that? the father's Senate chances are hurt by his unpopular gubernatorial son.) And Roy himself has 40/43 unfavorables.
After his son's rocky single term as governor was capped off by an abrupt decision not to seek reelection, the Blunt name is suffering a bit. The association among the GOP base of Rep. Blunt with congressional Republican failures over the past decade will also hurt the former majority whip in his efforts to build a campaign.
Human Events thinks this may open the door for Steelman:
Steelman, fresh off a loss to Hulshof in the gubernatorial primary, looks eager to take another crack at a revolution within the state party. In contrast to the standard laudatory press releases issued by other Missouri politicians upon Bond's retirement announcement, Steelman attacked Bond as "represent[ing] the old ways of Washington."
This is part of Steelman's appeal, and her weakness. She could be called the Sarah Palin of Missouri: a conservative outsider with a reform message. She gets called a lot worse things by most elected Republicans in the state, however, and she would have little to no institutional support in a primary and begrudging support in the general election.
KY3 political notebook unveils its Radar Rankings, showing what promises to be a rough primary battle. Blunt's got the bad positive/negatives; Talent would like to run but may opt out if the primary promises to be bruising, and Steelman is hampered by relatively poor name rec.
Of the three problems -- unpopularity, questionable drive, and low name rec -- Steelman's is the easiest to overcome. But shouldn't her name rec be higher after losing a gubernatorial primary in early 2008?
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