Sunday, January 18, 2009

Superbook Sunday

Sunday. January 18. 2009

1. Sarah Palin 3.5 to 1

2. Mitt Romney 4 to 1

3. Mike Huckabee 5 to 1

4. Bobby Jindal 6 to 1

5. Tim Pawlenty 10 to 1

Notes: Compare this week's Superbook market with Intrade's. One big difference. Sarah Palin takes the top spot at Superbook and fails to crack the top 5 at Intrade (the other four top candidates on Superbook all make Intrade's top 5, so there's some consistency there).

So what's going on?

There's Conventional Wisdom, and then there's Conventional Wisdom. To the world-at-large, the CW is that Sarah Palin will be the GOP's nominee, simply because everyone's talking about her. Within the realm of political observation, however, the CW is that Palin will be unable to overcome popular impressions; then fade as the primary heats up.

There's no empirical basis for the following guess, but Intrade seems to reflect the political chattering class -- how else to explain Mark Sanford's remarkable 3rd place showing? Outside of South Carolina and politco watchers, who's ever heard of Mark Sanford? Oh, is he that junk dealer?

It will be interesting to see how, or if, one betting market drives the other.


Anonymous said...

Superbook is a chumps market. It's jus sports mainly and politics thrown in just for shits.

Anonymous said...

Hey GOP12, can you make a post of each governor's stimulus requests? We can find out which one of ours is doing begging and which ones are actually walking the walk of fiscal conservatism. Perhaps put in a call?

Thus far, the numbers I have for requests among those listed on this website as presidential contenders are:

Jon Huntsman: $14.4 billion
Sarah Palin: $150 million (she got some heat for her low-ball number from the new Senator Mark Begich)
Charlie Crist: $7 billion
Mark Sanford: $0 from the last time I heard?

I couldn't find any info on the requests made by Bobby Jindal, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, and Tim Pawlenty. That just about covers everyone I think. Perhaps their state website have their letter request and I just haven't looked.

It should be noted that every state will be receiving some money through a formula. The question here is how much each governor is requesting for specific projects.